As the world grapples with record-breaking temperatures, rising geopolitical tensions and accelerating demand for energy, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025 maps out diverging pathways for the global energy system through 2050. The report underlines that while the pace of change may vary, the direction is clear: electrification and renewables are central to a more secure, affordable and climate-aligned energy future.

At the heart of the Outlook is a call to action for decision-makers to strengthen the resilience of energy systems, tackle vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, and accelerate the deployment of clean technologies.

Key trends: The age of electricity and clean tech expansion

Across all scenarios, electricity plays an expanding role in meeting energy demand. Driven by electrification of transport, heating and industry, electricity use is projected to rise by more than 40% by 2035 – even faster in more ambitious scenarios.

This growth is further accelerated by increasing cooling needs, the rise of electric vehicles, and surging energy demand from data centres and artificial intelligence.

Renewables continue to outpace all other energy sources. In every scenario, solar PV remains the fastest-growing source of power generation, followed by wind. Energy efficiency improvements and growing investments in nuclear energy, particularly in emerging technologies such as small modular reactors, are also contributing to the transformation.

China remains a dominant force in clean energy manufacturing, but new investment is increasingly flowing into emerging markets, opening up opportunities for global collaboration and supply chain diversification.

Critical minerals and global energy security under pressure

The Outlook places unprecedented emphasis on the growing role of critical minerals – such as lithium, nickel and rare earth elements – which are essential for batteries, EVs and power grids. But the global supply of these minerals is highly concentrated, with China dominating refining capacity in 19 of 20 key minerals.

More than half of these materials are now subject to some form of export control, underlining the urgent need for diversified and resilient supply chains. For green energy frontrunners like Denmark, this represents both a strategic risk and an opportunity to lead in sustainable mineral sourcing, recycling and circular business models.

Three scenarios, one message: Action today defines tomorrow

The IEA’s three core scenarios offer different lenses on the future:

• Current Policies Scenario (CPS): Envisages continued reliance on fossil fuels, leading to a near 3 °C global temperature rise by 2100.
• Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Based on policies in place or under development, sees emissions peaking by 2030 and a 2.5 °C warming trajectory.
• Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE): Outlines a path to limiting warming to 1.5 °C, but acknowledges temporary overshoot and the need for large-scale CO₂ removal technologies.

Although global emissions continue to rise in the near term, the Outlook confirms that a pathway to a safer climate remains technically feasible—with strong momentum behind renewables, electrification and clean tech innovation.