The annual Outlook report from the Danish Energy Agency, published in Danish in March 2017, is now available in English.
Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2017 provides an assessment of how Danish energy consumption, energy production and greenhouse gas emissions will develop up to 2030 with existing adopted energy and climate policy initiatives; i.e. an outlook that assumes no new policy will be introduced (frozen-policy approach).
Since the current energy policy agreement expires in around 2020, many elements of the existing energy policy framework will change at around 2020.
The rigorous frozen-policy approach, coupled with the fact that projections run all the way to 2030, provides for a clear picture of the effect of not introducing new policies. This year’s Outlook therefore serves as a backdrop for considering possible future energy and climate policy initiatives.
The Outlook shows that renewable share of final energy consumption will reach 40% in 2020, but after 2020, the renewable share will be close to constant, leaving a challenge for future policy makers with regard to the government’s goal of achieving at least 50% renewables by 2030.
Also, after having followed a downward trend for many years, consumption of fossil fuels, in particular coal, may increase again after 2020. Consequently, Danish emissions of greenhouse gases, which are expected to drop up to 2020, are likely to increase again up to 2030. This is mainly due to a combination of increased electricity demand at data centres, and a halt in the expansion of renewable energy for electricity production.
The Government expects to launch a new draft energy policy agreement in late 2017.
Source: Danish Energy Agency